MO Soccer Blog

Nov. 5 Postseason Update

Hard to argue with district soccer week not being the best week of the season. Local rivalries, epic battles, new champions and the emotions built up from something that started (officially, anyway) over three months ago all lead to a lot of fun with the sport. Next Saturday’s Quarterfinal Day arguably has bigger stakes, but the familiarity of most of the teams playing in district finals gives many of the games an extra special edge. Thursday action saw 19 finals - all involving a number one seed, but only 12 survived. Crazy, but that’s what makes soccer considerably more unpredictable than most other sports and obviously adds to the postseason intrigue of our game.

Before we get into the recaps, here are some numbers first…

After Saturday, there will have been 189 playoff games (updated from the incorrect 190 yesterday).

So far, District seedings have been accurate 154 out of 187 (82.4%). MPR (Missouri Power Rankings) has been accurate 150 out of 187 (80.2%). Teams with a +.500 MPR score have won 181 of the 187 matches so far, with both finals left to play (tonight and tomorrow) have scores above that .500 threshold.  (Southern Boone is +.560 over Christian and SLUH is +1.03 over John Burroughs.) In other words, teams who have a stronger than .500 MPR score over the opponent have won 96.7% of the time.

Note: this will be the last blog of the week, but we hope to fill up next week’s lack of games with some material in preparation for the quarters next Saturday and some other areas that impact MO high school soccer.

Thursday recap:
 Class 1
The smaller schools were mostly status quo, with four of the five #1 seeds winning comfortably. The big shocker of the night was #3 Fair Grove’s (14) elimination of #1 College Heights (8), 4-0 at College Heights. Fair Grove advances for the second time in school history (2018) and one year after winning only 5 games. Overall #1 Lutheran St. Charles had an easy go of it in Canton for the week, winning both games by a combined 12-0 margin and advance for a second straight year, third overall. Smithton (2) also advanced, but with a tight 2-0 win over Knob Noster. It was the third win over Knob Noster this year. Knob Noster is in its 6th year and equalled its best season with 8 wins, while Smithton remains the state’s only undefeated team (23-0) and makes the playoffs for the second consecutive year. St. Pius (Festus) (3) also rolled to its 14th state playoff appearance but first since 2017 with a 3-0 win over DuBourg (11). In a mild upset based on MPR, but not by seeding, Brentwood (10) topped Gateway Sciences (7) 4-2 to make its second appearance in the playoffs and first since 2017.

Class 2
Only three matches on the slate last night, but two of them were classics. In District 7, #1 Harrisonville (21) outlasted #2 Barstow (26) 4-3 in 2OT in a battle of teams under .500 for the season. Anytime seven goals and a golden goal final happens, there is no other choice but to have been entertained (and likely drained) if you got to see this one. Coach Dan Coleman’s Wildcats squad survived back to back OT games as the #1 seed and will play in the playoffs for the 4th time in five years, 8th overall. A tough end for Barstow. In District 2, #2 St. Mary’s (11) edged #1 Affton (7) 2-1 in OT. St. Mary’s is one of the more storied programs in the state and will be making its 34th appearance and back to back after a four year hiatus. #1 Excelsior Springs (9) had no problem with #2 Marshall (10) in its 4-0 final win. Excelsior Springs returns to the playoffs for the third time and one year removed from winning only 5 times last year.

Fun fact about all three of these games: none of the teams had played each other in the regular season prior to the finals and despite being in the same district.

Class 3
Five finals last night and all were close, none were closer than in District 2, where #1 Ladue (6) and #2 Webster Groves (15) played an epic final. Tied 1-1 after regulation, the game went to penalties. Needing a stop on the 5th kick to extend the match, WG’s GK made a huge save, but Ladue’s GK answered with a stop on kick #6 to set up Ladue’s game-winner from a freshman into the lower right corner that set off a wild celebration. It’s worth the look to see the highlights on YouTube (Gateway Sports Venue). Ladue had its run of eight straight playoffs snapped last year, but are back for appearance #10.
In the District 1 final, #2 Mehlville (3) opened a 2-0 halftime lead on its home pitch and held on for a 2-1 win over #1 Cape Notre Dame (5). Mehlville advances for the 12th time in history, but first since 2017.
#1 overall and defending state champ Ft. Zumwalt South broke the recent spell of underdog city rivals winning by slipping past a determined Ft. Zumwalt East (20) squad 2-1. South wins its 8th consecutive district and tops FZE for the third time this season, with each result getting closer than the opening 4-0 win.
In District 6 at Bolivar #1 Neosho (8) broke loose from a 1-1 tie with the host team Bolivar (19) to get a 3-1 championship win. The Wildcats advance for the 5th consecutive year and 7th overall.
The District 7 match in Warrensburg featured two Independence teams separated by just over three miles. #2 Van Horn (21) upset #1 William Chrisman (10) 2-1 to claim its 4th straight playoff appearance and fifth overall. The win flipped the score from the teams’ earlier match.

Class 4
Three of the #1 seeds fell last night in Class 4. It’s hard to rank the bigger upset, but the two that stand out on night took out two of the arguably best programs in the state. #2 Marquette (6) stunned #1 CBC (4) 2-1 with two late second half goals on a night where Coach Chris Kenny also was inducted into the St. Louis Soccer Hall of Fame (Congrats, CK!). Likely tough to come down from that night! Marquette reaches the playoffs for the 7th time.
#2 Liberty (Wentzville) (13)’s 2-1 win over #1 St. Dominic (11) wasn’t much of an upset based on MPR (.03 separated the two), but it was the first ever win for Liberty in its 8-year history over perennial nationally ranked Crusaders and certainly qualifies as a milestone night for Coach Tony Luedecke and his squad. This marks playoff #2 for the Eagles.
In District 8, #2 Park Hill (23) edged #1 Liberty (7) 1-0 to advance. Liberty had beat PH twice in the regular season, but it’s always tough to beat a similar team three times. Park Hill returns to the playoffs for the 14th time and after a third place finish in 2020.
District 1 #1 Jackson (19) had to travel to Vianney (36) for its 2-1 win. Last year’s surprise Class 4 champs no doubt gained some experience and confidence from that run as they look to defend.
District 5 #1 Kickapoo (10) ended a great run from #6 Carthage (30) 3-0. The Chiefs win their 20th game and make their 14th playoff appearance, but first since 2017. Carthage had topped the 2 and 3 seed as hosts.
Overall #1 Rockhurst eliminated #3 Lee’s Summit West (8) 3-1 to advance for the 40th time, the most by any program in the state. Rockhurst is looking for its 8th title and has been a postseason participant every year since 1980 with the exception of 1983 and 2011 - an incredible feat.

Two matches left to be played…
Tonight
Class 2, District 4 in Winfield where #1 Southern Boone (12) takes on #3 Christian (27) in an early 3:00 start. SBC has a .560 MPR advantage.

Saturday
Class 4
#1 SLUH (2) hosts #3 John Burroughs (21) at 1:00. The Bombers will look to pull off another stunner after getting by #3 overall Chaminade in the semis on a PK and a solid defense. SLUH has a +1.03 MPR advantage.

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Nov. 4 Recap/Preview and More

We have our first set of champions from another wild night in MO soccer. Eleven teams punched tickets to the postseason and five more teams advanced to finals. We have 19 championship matches on tap for tonight - the biggest final night of the week - and what looks to be a cold, crisp, but dry evening. In case you’re wondering, only two more first round matches after tonight - one each Friday and Saturday - before the new-look state playoffs begin next Saturday. 190 first-round matches in all!

Note: the team’s Missouri Power Ranking (MPR) as of Oct. 29 will be used throughout and follow the team name. Example: #1 Glendale (2) is the #2 overall team in Class 3 and #1 in its district. A decimal score listed is the difference in MPR actual points between two teams. What the MPR has found in its three years is that teams within .500 of each other have a higher probability of upset the lower the score is. In other words, two teams with a very close margin basically means it will be a toss up. In 168 matches so far, we’ve had 30 MPR upsets with only six teams being over .500 (difference between the two teams). The other 24 MPR upsets were all under .500, with an average score of .229. Overall, the MPR has accurately predicted 82.14% of games so far and teams with a +.500 have had a 96.4% chance of advancing.

The six biggest upsets so far by MPR:
John Burroughs (21) over Chaminade (3) .8311 (last night)
Hancock (34) over St. Paul (Farmington) 26 .820
North Kansas City (55) over Park Hill South (29) .760
Crossroads (32) over STEAM (15) .749 (last night)
Borgia (19) over Father Tolton (8) .688 (last night)
Guadalupe (12) over Pembroke Hill (4) .512

District Championships
We will start last night’s recap in Class 3, District 5 where #1 Glendale (2) and #3 Springfield Catholic (9), two of the most storied teams in Springfield, battled in an instant classic. Glendale took a 2-0 lead early in the second half, but the Irish responded with two goals within a minute of each other with 13 minutes to play. Glendale showed some moxie and punched in a goal with 18 seconds left on a desperation corner kick to win its 10th consecutive district title and 25th overall for MO Hall of Fame coach Jeff Rogers. Heartbreak for the Irish and coach Mike Hines, who were certainly good enough to be worthy of state play.

The northwest part of the state had three intriguing matchups and they didn’t disappoint. In Class 1, District 8 #2 Maryville (4) edged #1 Summit Christian Academy (5) in OT, 2-1 to advance to the playoffs for the 4th time since 2015. In class 2, District 8, #2 Chillicothe (8) kept its winning streak alive at 18 with a 1-0 win over Bishop LeBlond (6) and avenging its last loss back on Sept. 9. Home field certainly didn’t hurt in what looked to be a quality final. The Hornets make the playoffs for the 4th time and win 20 for the first time. The Class 3, District 8 final saw upstart #3 Guadalupe (by seeding) (12) take out host Platte Co. (13) 3-1. Guadalupe has shown over the past few years to be a tough out in the playoffs - winning the 2019 Class 2 title with just 15 players on the roster, but with loads of athleticism and talent. They seem to be hot at the right time.

Class 1 saw two finals, with a top seed going down. #2 Borgia’s (19) late goal from distance gave it a 1-0 win over #1 Father Tolton (8) at home in District 4 and avenged an early season loss to Tolton. The Knights advance to the playoffs for the first time since 2015 after entering the postseason with just three regular season wins.

In District 5, #1 Laquey (24) rolled to a 5-1 win over #2 Dixon (13) to avenge two regular season losses to the Bulldogs. Laquey returns to the playoffs for the sixth time in nine years.

The game everyone was waiting for in St. Louis Class 2, District 3 didn’t disappoint, either. #2 Whitfield (1) pushed past #1 Westminster Christian (2) 2-0. Whitfield, a class 1 finalist last season that returned a large bulk of its roster, was the elite small school program in MO for many years and has seven titles and three second place finishes in its history, but hasn’t won one since 2010. These two teams topped Class 2 most of the season, but Whitfield wins the one that counts for advancement.

Also in Class 2, #1 Perryville (3) and its high-powered offense cruised past #2 Saxony-Lutheran (14) 3-0. Perryville, the 2014 Class 2 champs and 2015 finalists, have scored 121 goals on the season and reach the playoffs for the first time since that 2015 year.

District 5 #1 Logan-Rogersville (5) advanced for the first time with a 3-1 win over #2 School of the Osage (13), which was also seeking its first playoff berth. L-R’s 3-1 semifinal victory over perennial champ Monett (winners of the nine previous titles) opened the door for a new postseason face.

In the other Class 3 title game last night, #1 Rockwood Summit (17) cruised to a 6-0 win over #2 Capital City (18) in what could be the most impressive win of the night. The Falcons were never tested in this district, winning the three matches by a combined 22-0. Despite the 11-10 record entering play, Summit’s brutal in-season schedule had them ready for the postseason, while Cap City finishes its best season yet at 15-8. Summit looks primed for a run at its third state title in six years and first since its magical 29-0-1 crown in 2019.

The only Class 4 final last night saw #3 Blue Springs (17) get two late first half goals en route to a 3-0 win over #4 Rock Bridge (26) in Columbia. It marks the second consecutive playoff appearance for Blue Springs after a 13-year dry spell. The Wildcats were the first Class 4 team outside of STL to win a state title back in 1996.

In semifinal action last night, four Class 4 schools with big pedigrees faced off in STL. The big stunner of the evening on paper was #3 John Burroughs (21) 1-0 win over #2 Chaminade (3) - the biggest upset of the tournament based on MPR (.831). However, the Bombers are an elite program and Coach Alan Trzecki is no stranger to playing and winning big games. Chaminade had nipped JB 2-1 only a few weeks back, so this one was likely always going to be a battle of two of the best coaches and programs in the state in what is a loaded district. This was just a semifinal! JB’s reward is to face #1 SLUH (2), who cruised past Howell North (37) 5-0 at SLUH Saturday, which should at least give the Bombers a chance to rest and prepare as heavy underdogs.

In Class 1, District 3, #3 Crossroads (34) toppled #2 STEAM (17) 6-1 in what could be considered a shocker based on MPR (.749). It was the fourth biggest upset of the tournament based on MPR. Crossroads now turns around to play overall #1 Lutheran St. Charles tonight in the finals at Canton.

Class 2, District 4 semis in Winfield saw #1 Southern Boone (12) beat #5 Winfield (30) 3-0 and #3 Christian (27) eliminate #2 Fulton (16) in penalties after a 1-1 full time. The two will play in Friday’s only contest. If Southern Boone wins it will set up a rematch of the Class 1 final from last year against Whitfield that SBC won 1-0. SBC will be a heavy favorite (.560) as it plays in its 13th consecutive final where it has won 11 straight since a 2009 loss. Christian looks to get back to the playoffs for the first time since a 4-year run ended in 2020.

Thursday’s Finals (MPR favorite will have score next to name - the lower the score, the closer the two teams are)
Class 1
St. Pius (Festus) (3) (.44) vs. Bishop DuBourg (11)
Gateway (7) .15 vs. Brentwood (10)
Lutheran St. Charles (1) (1.79) vs. Crossroads (32)
College Heights (6) (.45) vs. Fair Grove (12)
Smithton (2) (1.34) vs. Knob Noster (27)

The top two teams in Class 1 look to have smoother paths tonight, while the Gateway-Brentwood game could be a toss up.

Class 2
Affton (7) (.20) vs. St. Mary’s (11)
Harrisonville (21) (.15) vs. Barstow (26)
Excelsior Springs (9) (.04) vs. Marshall (10)

All three Class 2 finals tonight are tight with regards to MPR scores. Look for close games in each. Harrisonville and St. Mary’s each made the playoffs last season and will look for experience to play a factor. Excelsior looks to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2015, while Marshall tries for its first appearance since 2017. Barstow will try to return to the playoffs for the 9th time since 2010 after sitting out last year due to Covid concerns. The Knights won Class 1 titles in 2014 and 2018 and were bumped to Class 2 because of the success factor.


Class 3
Mehlville (3) (.22) vs. Cape Notre Dame (5)
Ladue (6) (.38) vs. Webster Groves (15)
Ft. Zumwalt South (1) (.94) vs. Ft. Zumwalt East (20)
Neosho (8) (.29) vs. Bolivar (19)
William Chrisman (10) (.16) vs. Van Horn (21)

Mehlville is the #2 seed based on losing a coin toss to #1 seed Cape ND, but both have been in the top of the rankings all year. Mehlville gets a boost by hosting, as well. On the other side of the state, William Chrisman and Van Horn are separated by just a little over three miles and know each other well - should make for a great atmosphere, even if the game is played in Warrensburg. #1 Zumwalt South will try to avoid the trend of district rivals pulling the upset that has already happened multiple times in 2021. Webster Groves is a slight underdog against Ladue, but WG has piled up four state trophies since 2014, including championships in 2014-15. Ladue had its run of eight straight playoffs snapped last year but have won 20 so far in ’21 as the #1 seed. One of its six losses came against WG just a few weeks ago.

Class 4
Jackson (19) (.40) vs. Vianney (36)
CBC (4) (.31) vs. Marquette (6)
St. Dominic (11) (.03) vs. Liberty (Wentzville) (13)
Kickapoo (10) (.46) vs. Carthage (30)
Rockhurst (1) (.74) vs. Lee’s Summit West (8)
Liberty (7) (.39) vs. Park Hill (23)

Vianney is the lowest remaining school left in the playoffs, but the Griffins’ rich history and home field could make the District 1 final an even one. Dominic-Liberty is also a backyard showdown of two teams who already played 0-0. This one is also on a neutral pitch at Howell. CBC-Marquette is old school power vs. the upstart on a neutral field. Carthage also looks to pull off a district upset 3-peat by taking out all of the top 3 teams at home if it can get by Kickapoo. LSW will look to topple #1 overall Rockhurst at LSN and get some payback for losing to Rockhurst 2-1 last season in the sectionals.

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Tonight, champions get crowned in 11 different districts across the four classes. Several quality matchups on the slate tonight, but first…

Tuesday’s recap:

The last “big” (volume-wise) night of action of the season with 42 matches played. Six seeded upsets on the evening, but last night was more of a tale of “almost upsets” for several #1 teams. While 13 of the 20 #1 seeds took the field last night and advanced comfortably (all by multiple goals and many by the 8 goal margin), seven #1 seeds survived upsets last night, with four of them winning in OT.

Note: the number in (  ) is the final MPR (Missouri Power Ranking) rank of the team. A + MPR score means that team is favored due to a higher in season MPR score.

Class 1
District 4
#4 Fatima (16) had #1 Father Tolton (8) on the ropes with a 1-0 lead late after scoring on a counter attack with just over 13 minutes to play. Tolton rallied with a late goal and then won in OT for the right to play host Borgia (19) tonight on Borgia’s home field. Tolton knocked off Borgia 2-0 earlier in the year. Borgia cruised with a 5-0 win over MMA (23). Tolton has an MPR score of +.69 over Borgia heading into tonight, but Borgia, despite its record has been competitive of late, including a big win over rival Union late in the season. Based on MPR, Fatima would have been the #2 seed.

Class 2
District 7 #1 seed Harrisonville (21) earned the golden goal 1-0 win over host and #4 St. Pius (KC) (33), while #2 seed Barstow (26) held off #3 Center (35) in what must have been a tense night on the Pius pitch. Barstow had dropped four straight coming into the playoffs but now will play for a district title tomorrow night.

Class 3
In District 2 at Clayton, #1 Ladue (6) forced OT with a late penalty and then got the game-winner in OT to escape #5 Parkway Central (27) 2-1. Those two always seem to make instant classics when they get together. Ladue will play #2 Webster Groves (15) who held on to knock out the defending class 2 champ, MICDS (11) 1-0. Webster will be hoping to beat Ladue for the second time this season in Thursday’s final.

District 7
#1 William Chrisman (10) slipped past #5 St. Michael’s (33) 2-1 in Warrensburg and will face #2 Van Horn Thursday after Van Horn (21) eked out a 1-0 win over #3 Grain Valley (22) in a game befitting of the two rankings. Chrisman won the regular season match 2-1.

Class 4
District 1
#1 Jackson (19) topped a determined #4 Northwest (28) team that had one of its stronger seasons (17-8) of record, 1-0. Jackson will travel back to St. Louis Thursday to play #2 Vianney (36). The host Griffins held off #3 (and MPR favored) Oakville (20) 2-1.

District 2
#1 CBC (4) held off a solid #4 Lafayette (35) squad on the road 1-0 for the rights to play #2 Marquette (6), who had one of the bigger statement wins of the night with a 3-0 decision over #3 DeSmet (15). Thursday’s final will have a little bit of the old guard vs. upstart feel to it and should make for some great soccer. Marquette has put together a rebound season after two seasons under .500 while CBC seems to always be in the mix despite last season’s “off” season where the Cadets only played six matches and were without coaching legend Terry Michler.

District 8
#1 Liberty (7) outlasted #4 Staley (34) 2-1 in OT to advance to Thursday’s final against #2 Park Hill (23) who got by upstart #6 North Kansas City (55) 2-0. Liberty will attempt to beat Park Hill for the 3rd time this season - the two previous matches were one goal affairs.

Tuesday notes: The biggest upset of the night was #6 seed Carthage (30) taking out #2 seed Nixa (16) 2-1 in OT in Class 4, District 5. Nixa had steamrolled Carthage 9-1 Oct. 19, but the MPR had the difference between the two teams at only .30, which falls in that 0 to .50 range of possible upsets. Carthage will look to keep the upset trend going against #1 Kickapoo (10 in the finals Thursday. Lee’s Summit West (8) continued the trend of lower seeded city rivals knocking out a higher seed when it eliminated Lee’s Summit (5) 3-1. LSW will get overall #1 Rockhurst in the finals Thursday. Class 4  District #2 Liberty (Wentzville) (13) also had a statement win, 3-0 over #3 Howell (12), 3-0. Liberty and district #1 St. Dominic (11) drew earlier in the season 0-0, so look for that match to be close.

Wednesday’s Preview
16 matches on the slate tonight with 11 of them crowning district champions.

While every championship match is a “big one”, the biggest will likely take place in St. Louis with Class 2, District 3 the site of overall #1 Westminster (2) taking on #2 Whitfield (1) in what could likely decide the eventual state champion. Whitfield had to survive a war against Orchard Farm (4) in the semi to advance and the two teams who have spent most of the season atop the Class 2 MPR. Westminster, while the overall #2MPR team earned the 1 seed with a 3-2 OT win at Whitfield in late September. Always fun to see which teams can adjust or improve from a match that seems like a long time ago. MPR barely favors Whitfield +.02, so this will be a potential dandy.

The closest MPR match of the night is in Class 3, District 8 at Platte Co. #2 Platte Co. (13) is a slight underdog to #3 (12) Guadalupe (+.008), who decisively took out the district 1 seed Pembroke Hill in the semi. Guadalupe is only two years removed from a surprise Class 2 title but have struggled with consistency throughout the year. Platte Co. owns a 3-0 win earlier in the year over Guadalupe.

Staying in the NW part of the state, the Class, District 8 final with #1 Summit Christian Academy (5) and #2 Maryville (4) shows a slight MPR bump to Maryville (.08), but SCA has the advantage of hosting. Look for a tight battle there as the teams meet for the first time this year.

Yet another tight final could be Class 2, District 8 with #1 Bishop LeBlond (6) traveling to #2 Chillicothe (8). LeBlond has a slight (.10) advantage in MPR, but Chillicothe has won 17 in a row and riding high over its 19-win school best year. The last loss? LeBlond knocked the Hornets off 3-1 in early September.

In class 3, District 4 #1 Rockwood Summit (17) will travel to Jeff City to play #2 Capital City (18) in a final that slightly favors Summit (.04). Summit will look to rely on its staunch history, while Capital City looks for a boost from a big home crowd seeing its first district title match in just its third year.

Other finals tonight:
Class 1, District 4
#1 Father Tolton +.69 vs. Borgia

Class 1, District 5
#1 Laquey (24) vs. #2 Dixon (13). Dixon is the MPR favorite with a +.35 and has already beat Laquey twice this season.

Class 2, District 1
#1 Perryville (3) (+.57) vs. #2 Saxony Lutheran (14). Perryville won the first match 2-1.

Class 2, District 5
#1 Logan-Rogersville (5) (+.30) vs. Osage (13). The two didn’t play in the regular season and neither has won a district prior to 2008, so a lot at stake for two teams not used to being in this position.

Class 3, District 5
#1 Glendale (2) (+.56) vs. #3 Springfield Catholic (9). Glendale beat the Irish 1-0 earlier.

Class 4, District 6
#3 Blue Springs (17) (+.20) vs. #4 Rock Bridge (26). Both teams riding high over big wins over rivals in the semis…RB gets a bump by playing at home.


34) playing STEAM (mifinals tonight:
Class 1, District 3 - only one game with the winner of Crossroads (34) and STEAM (17) advancing to play overall #1 Lutheran St. Charles Thursday.

Class 2, District 4 - winners of this semi play the only Friday match of the week.

Class 4, District 3 - Four heavy hitters going at it in STL.

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