MO Soccer Blog
Class 3 and 4 Previews (10-29)
by Admin on 11/01/21
Coaches - The last regular season Power Rankings will be posted
shortly. While these have proven to be fairly accurate (based on
postseason successes) in our short run of using them, there are also the
"gotta play the games" and "it's soccer...anything can happen" factors
that make the postseason so fun. There has been a lot of talk regarding
the way that we seed our districts and if we would be better off with
using our Power Rankings. For fun (or maybe more out of curiosity),
here's a look at how the districts were seeded and how they would have
been seeded if we used the power rankings. One big argument regarding
the use of Power Rankings to seed comes from teams within a district not
playing each other during the regular season, unlike football, for
example.
The rankings used were from the Oct. 25 edition
that came out earlier this week - mainly because if we did use these to
seed, we would use ones from that time period and not the final ones
that will be posted later today. "No change" means that the districts
were seeded as teams were ranked in the Power Rankings. As you can see,
the class 3 and 4 versions almost all had some changes based on the
rankings and the actual seedings.
(Apologies, in advance for any errors...)
Class 3
District
1 - The big one here is #1 Cape ND (6) over #2 Mehlville (2). The two
didn't play in the regular season and both had outstanding
seasons...should be a fun one! Fun note: this seeding was decided by a
coin flip that Cape ND won. #7 Lutheran South (51) a spot below #6
Sikeston (52) isn't much of a difference, but one has to wonder if the
smaller sized private schools who move up often deal with a little
voting bias from the established teams in the class.
District 2
- #2 Webster Groves (15) nips #3 (and defending Class 2 champs) MICDS
(14) for the 2nd spot. The two didn't play BUT Webster does have a late
season 2-1 win over #1 Ladue (5). Ladue did get a solid 4-1 win over
MICDS earlier. #7 Principia (33) behind #5 Parkway Central (36) and #6
Parkway West (37). Central squeaked by West 1-0, while Principia played a
mostly smaller school schedule and no common opponents in that group of
3.
District 3 - The defending champs (Zumwalt South) are in
this district, along with the bottom 4 teams in Class 3 that are off by
one #6 Warrenton (61) is behind #5 McCluer North (62). The last 4 seeds
there likely went by win totals.
District 4 - This district
(based on the rankings) is all over the place. #1 Summit (23), who
didn't play anyone in the district, is ahead of #2 Capital City,
followed by #3 Jeff City (30), #4 Rolla (25), #5 Union (29). Hard to
settle this one as Cap City beat JC and Rolla early in the season, while
the Jays lose to Rolla but beat Union 3-0. The 6-8 seeds Washington,
Pacific and Camdenton are 46, 48, 49, so this district could be a wild
one.
District 5 - The only discrepancy here is #4 Parkview
(39) over #4 West Plains (38), but Parkview beat the Zizzers 5-1 late in
the year. #1 Glendale (1), #2 Branson (8) and #3 Catholic (9) lined up
correctly, but each game among the three were one goal games, so next
week could be for some fun soccer in the SW.
District 6 - No change. The only class 3 district to align. Neosho (7) is the only top 15 team.
District
7 - The top 4 seeds in this one are all ranked from 10-21 so semifinal
action should be close. #4 (and formally a Class 1) St. Paul Lutheran
(16) sits behind #2 Van Horn (18) and #3 Grain Valley (21) and didn't
play any class 3 or 4 schools all year. #5 St. Michael's (34) and #6
Smith-Cotton (35) make a case for a higher seed based on scheduling, but
St. Paul's has a rich tradition at the lower classes and only one loss
on the year.
District 8 - Another highly competitive district.
#1 Pembroke Hill (4) already has a solid win over overall #1 Glendale
and will face challenges from #2 (and host school) Platte Co. (11), #3
Smithville (13) and #4 Guadalupe (12). Smithville did beat Guadalupe 1-0
earlier and took Platte Co. to OT before losing. All three Platte Co.
losses came by one goal.
Class 4
District
1 - This one is a bit scattered. #1 Jackson (16), #2 Vianney (37), #3
Oakville (19), #4 Northwest (28), #5 Lindbergh (48) and #6 Seckman (31)
are a bit jumbled. Vianney's OT win over Oakville is likely a big
factor. Also doubt the Vianney schedule (MCC) didn't hurt, either.
Northwesta lost to Oakville but had a big 5-0 win over Seckman. Seckman
finished the regular season 17-4, but seeded behind 6-11-3 Lindbergh.
District 1 is always a challenge to seed due to the SE teams and STL
teams trying to compare.
District 2 - Almost lined up, but
lots of equality here.#1 CBC (5) over #2 Marquette (6) and #3 (deSmet
(22). Only flip would be #6 Eureka (41) and #7 Parkway South (39) -
Parkway South opened the year with an OT win over Eureka.
District
3 - No change. Splitting the MCC schools into three different districts
could mean more of the MCC schools get out with #1 SLUH (2) and #2
Chaminade (3) dealing with former Class 2 power #3 John Burroughs (21)
in the semis. Despite being much smaller in enrollment, the Bombers have
a championship pedigree and play most of the MCC schools. SLUH has been
a top team all year, but CCP has already knocked off the Billikens 1-0.
District
4 - This one will be fun...#1 St. Dominic (15) tied #2 Liberty (11)
earlier in the season. #3 Howell (14) and #4 Timberland (25) are also
highly competitive. Dominic's 2-0 win over Howell was likely the big
factor as Liberty and Howell didn't play.
District 5 - The
Southwest is always tight and this year is even more so with 5 teams
within the top 30. #1 Kickapoo (9) edged out Nixa (7) and #3 Ozark (18).
#4 Joplin (27)and #5 Republic (26), along with #6 Carthage (29) make
for a top heavy district. Kickapoo gets the 1 based on wins over Nixa
and Ozark.
District 6 - This may be the poster child for why
rankings would be helpful. Three KC schools, four Mid-Mo schools and one
STL area school thrown together. #1 Hickman (8) the top team in Mid-Mo
all year and deserving of #1. #2 Blue Springs South (17) behind #3 Blue
Springs (13) in rankings but beat Blue Springs two out of three (all
close games) to get the 2 seed. #5 Troy (56) leapfrogs #6 Ft. Osage
(43), and #8 Helias (54)...likely due to the way their seasons ended.
Helias behind #7 Battle (58) due to Battle's 1-0 regular season win.
District
7 - Overall #1 Rockhurst the favorite here, but #2 Lee's Summit (4) and
#3 Lee's Summit West (12) pose threats. #5 Belton (23) behind #4
Ray-Pec (36) despite beating Ray-Pec 1-0. Uniform choice is the only
difference in the long run.
District 8 - Only slight
change would be #6 North KC (57) and #7 St. Joe Central (55). St. Joe
Central also beat North KC...big difference between playing a 2 and 3
seed sometimes. In this case, playing the two seed (Park Hill 20) and
three (Park Hill South 30) are mainly a new foe. St. Joe lost to Park
Hill South twice already and has yet to play Park Hill.
Class 1 and 2 Previews (10-29)
by Admin on 11/01/21
Coaches - The last regular season Power Rankings will be posted
shortly. While these have proven to be fairly accurate (based on
postseason successes) in our short run of using them, there are also the
"gotta play the games" and "it's soccer...anything can happen" factors
that make the postseason so fun. There has been a lot of talk regarding
the way that we seed our districts and if we would be better off with
using our Power Rankings. For fun (or maybe more out of curiosity),
here's a look at how the districts were seeded and how they would have
been seeded if we used the power rankings. One big argument regarding
the use of Power Rankings to seed comes from teams within a district not
playing each other during the regular season, unlike football, for
example.
The rankings used were from the Oct. 25 edition
that came out earlier this week - mainly because if we did use these to
seed, we would use ones from that time period and not the final ones
that will be posted later today. "No change" means that the districts
were seeded as teams were ranked in the Power Rankings.
Class 1
District 1 - No change
District
2 - Gateway (9) would have been the 1 seed over Brentwood (10). The two
did not play in the regular season. Metro (16) would have been the 3
seed and Maplewood (20) 4; HOWEVER...MRH beat Maplewood in the regular
season. This is one of the many instances where playing head to head
paid off for a team. Unfortunately, since teams don't know district
assignments until after schedules are made, this is always going to be
an issue and perhaps a reason to use the Power Rankings as a tool for
seeding.
District 3 - STEAM (15) should have been the 2
seed and Canton (24) the 3 seed over Crossroads (31), who did get the 2
seed. This is likely a case where a school considerably far away from
the others (Canton) likely gets pushed down in the seeding due to no (or
few) common opponents. Crossroads did beat STEAM in the regular season.
District
4 - Fatima (17) is the 4 seed, behind #2 Borgia (21) and #3 MMA (22).
Fatima lost to MMA 5-4 in the regular season. Borgia at 3-18 likely gets
the 2nd seed due to a difficult non-conference schedule.
District
5 - Laquey (26) is the 1 seed over Dixon 2 (12) and Crocker 3 (18).
Laquey lost to Dixon TWICE in the regular season and defeated Crocker
7-0. The complication comes with Crocker defeating Dixon 5-2 in the
regular season.
District 6 - Stover (32) is a 4 seed and
Cole Camp (30) a 5. While this really only matters as to what uniform
they wear for the game, Cole Camp should be the 4 seed by virtue of a
win over Stover in the regular season.
District 7 - #2
Knob Noster (27), #3 Lone Jack (29) and #4 Green Ridge (28) are the 2-4
seeds, so there is not much discrepancy there. Knob Noster defeated both
teams in the regular season.
District 8 - Summit Christian (6) is the 1 seed over Maryville (3). The two teams did not play in the regular season.
Class 2
District 1 - No Change
District 2 - No Change
District
3 - This district features 3 of the top 4 teams in the state.
Westminster (2) gets the 1 seed over #2 Whitfield (1) and #3 Orchard
Farm (4) likely due to Westminster's OT win over Whitfield. Whitfield
also knocked off Orchard Farm in the regular season. To further
complicate this district, Duchesne (30) is the 4 seed over St. Charles
(18) due to Duchesne's 2-1 win over St. Charles.
District 4 -
Wright City (22) is the 6 seed behind #3 Christian (25) and #4 St.
Charles West (34) AND #5 Winfield (32). This is the biggest drop of any
team via the rankings based on seeding; however Wright City went 0-2 in
district play, losing to both SCW and Winfield.
District 5 -
The only issues here are down at the bottom of the seedings where #5
Cassville (45) is ahead of #6 Greenwood (43) and #7 Aurora (44).
Cassville beat Greenwood but split two games with Aurora. Aurora also
beat Greenwood 9-1 at the end of the season.
District 6 - No Change.
District
7 - Four teams lumped together in the middle in the 30's. #3 Center
(36) is ahead of #4 St. Pius (33), #5 Pleasant Hill (39) and #6 Ewing
Kauffman (37). Center lost to Pius and beat Pleasant Hill. The big
difference here is that Pius likely should have had a semi match up with
#2 Barstow instead of #1 Harrisonville who beat Pius 2-0 earlier.
District 8 - No Change
2021 Postseason Analysis Explanation
by Admin on 11/01/21
Greetings all!
Going to try something new (and hopefully fun) for this year's postseason. As many of you know, we have been working to create a MO Soccer Power Rankings over the past few years in an effort to replace the (much slower and likely not all that accurate) Coaches Polls. It's been a labor of love for the creator (Ryan Schweain, of Cape ND) and he has been constantly tweaking the formulas in order to provide the best possible way to rank the teams in the state based on results, strength of schedule, etc. What started in 2019 has grown into our current ranking system and with that, a lot of good dialogue from coaches, fans and players with regards to our sport. As always, lots of "what if" questions come up and if nothing else, it's an interesting way to fix the biggest problem we had with our previous Coaches Polling system - that of coaches in all parts of the state trying to compare teams that most don't or can't see throughout the year. The MPR (Missouri Power Rankings) is designed to do that through an analytical "numbers based" approach with one goal in mind: create more interest for our sport.
That all being said, this system was not designed to replace the current playoff system seeding method or anything really to do with how MSHSAA runs the playoffs. With the latest change to the postseason (no more sectional games and thus larger districts) coming into play this year and the obvious connection to how football uses a similar system to seed districts, several people have reached out to see if this is a possibility for MO soccer. The answer, frankly, is probably "no" - at least not anytime soon and not without a lot more dialogue from the coaches/schools with MSHSAA.
In any case, over the weekend prior to the postseason starting (and using the last regular season MPR as a guide), we looked at each district's seeding and how our MPR aligned with those seeds and offered a bit of analysis as a reference. What we discovered was that in several cases of the MPR and seeding not aligning came from head-to-head games or the fact that not many teams played each other within the district, so likely the coaches were "guesstimating" where seeding should be, or also possibly manipulating seeds. Regardless, we sent an email out to association members with some of what we found and that led us into thinking we could try to do some more with our info over the next few weeks. Thus, the genesis of this blog.
Again, this is only for discussion and (maybe) some entertainment value. Feel free to let us know any thoughts you have...we will be doing some updating to this over the next few days as best we can.
Enjoy