The first weekend (11-1)
by Admin on 11/01/21
A beautiful fall day in MO kicked off the 2021 postseason with 68 games on the slate.
There were 10 "upsets" (lower seeded teams beating a higher seed) over those 68 games. Eight of the upsets were from 5 seeds knocking off 4 seeds. The other two were 6 seeds over a 3.
For two of the upsets seed-wise, the MPR correctly had them ranked, while the seeding did not: #5 West Plains (38) over #4 Parkview (40) and #5 St. Charles (17) over #4 Duchesne (29). The other upsets:
Ray-Pec (38) over Belton (22) 6-2
Howell Central (33) over Timberland (24) 3-0
Parkway Central (27) over Clayton (24)
Kirksville (47) over Benton (42) 3-0
Windsor (47) over Bayless (23) 1-0
Joplin (27) over Republic (25) 2-1
Hillsboro (46) over Farmington (43) 1-0
The biggest upset of the tournament so far came in Class 4 District 8 with #6 (and Class 4 overall #55) North Kansas City's 2-1 win over #3 (29 overall) Park Hill South. Park Hill South had easily handled NKC twice in the regular season, 6-1 and 7-1 and the difference from the regular season point total of .7604 was easily the biggest of the day and the only one with a difference of over .300.
Another #6 over #3 in class 4 Southwest wasn't really all that much of a stretch. Carthage (30) topped Ozark (18) 3-2 in OT Saturday to pull the upset, but Carthage had just knocked off Ozark 2-0 in the season's final week.
The second biggest upset actually came in Class 3, District 7 where #5 St. Michael's (33) cruised past #4 St. Paul Lutheran (16) 6-2. St. Paul had a stellar 20-1 record entering the postseason, but playing in Class 3 was always going to be a challenge for a school with an enrollment of 114. St. Paul's fate was definitely a result of the new (last year) Success Factor that MSHSAA incorporated. The Saints had finished second in Class 1 in 2019, but the biggest factor was likely the 2016 Class 1 state championship that gave them enough points to be pushed into Class 3.
More on the success factor to come (likely this week in another blog), as it is certainly one of the more raw subjects to discuss within the soccer community.
Finally, one of the "hot spots" with the MPR numbers is when comparing two team's MPR points in a match up. Any two teams within .5000 of each other has a higher potential for an upset, thus making NKC's win the best example of "anything can happen" with soccer and especially soccer tournaments. Seeding is just that - a place to start and what happens after is the beauty of it all. On any given day...you just never know.
And so, just for fun and to see how well the numbers line up, here are some potential "upsets" in the remaining first round games. No second round match ups have been included in this blog - we'll look at those later.
Team listed first is the higher seed.
The number at the end is the difference between the two teams based on the season point total. For example, a ".15" is more chance of an upset happening than ".39" but the ".39" team that wins would have a greater claim to a bigger upset.
If not listed, then the two teams are more than .50 apart, which means the upset is unlikely but even a greater story if it happens (at least for one of the teams...)!
Round 1 Upset Alerts (based on district seeding for games yet to be played in the opening round)
Class 1 (higher seed listed first - the lower the difference, the more chance of upset)
DuBourg vs. Valley Park .36
Metro vs. McKinley .13
Dixon vs. Crocker .08
Stover vs. Cole Camp .11
New Covenant vs. Fair Grove .34
Borgia vs. MMA .07
Knob Noster vs. Lone Jack .19
Class 2
Sacred Heart vs. Oak Grove .14
Odessa vs. Moberly .40
St. Charles West vs. Winfield .28
Christian vs Wright City .001 (almost even)
St. Pius vs. Pleasant Hill .29
Barstow vs. Kauffman .44
Class 3
Willard vs. Grandview .05
Class 4
Lafayette vs. Kirkwood - this is an interesting one in that Kirkwood (seeded 5) actually has a higher point total (+.08) but is seeded lower. Based on MPR a Lafayette win would actually qualify as an "upset" with the MPR, but not with the seeding.
HUGE NOTE: A real chance that a mistake or two regarding numbers were made in analysis here...we are new to this, as well.
AGAIN, THIS IS JUST FOR DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS PURPOSES. A lot of riding along to see how accurate (or inaccurate) the seedings/MPR are this year. This is not intended to slight or throw shade on any program - just analyzing through the numbers!
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