Nov. 9 The Success Factor

November 9 - The Success Factor and a little background of the state playoff system

In yesterday’s post, we used the phrase, “Two years after incorporating a Success Factor aimed at leveling private school dominance,” which arguably could have been worded a little differently with regards to the intent of the post. In any case, that phrase and a reader’s comment regarding that portion of the blog has led to today’s topic - the Success Factor.

MSHSAA started utilizing  the new procedure for classifying schools in 2020 in all sports, after using a standard 1.35 multiplier to all private and charter schools since 2002. Basically, sport success factors into classification rather than just enrollment, which then affects each individual sport within a private school, rather than a blanket enrollment over the entire school. Basically, a school with a strong soccer program will have its classification pushed up, while the same school’s basketball program that hasn’t had the same success won’t be affected. Private schools are judged on a points system over the previous six years and then classified accordingly. For more on the specifics, you can look here:
https://www.stltoday.com/sports/high-school/mshsaa-members-vote-out-private-school-multiplier-in-exchange-for-postseason-success-factor/article_fc2bd80c-946e-11e9-a649-2fc3f75282fc.html.

An anonymous reader commented, “‘Two years after incorporating a Success Factor aimed at leveling private school dominance….' is an assertion that needs fact-checked. Inquire with MSHSAA in regards to the total number of championships (all sports) non-public versus public. To date, one will find that approximately 70% of championships come from public schools.”

While this statement is assumedly true (we didn’t analyze all of the other sports state champions for transparency sake), it is misleading with regards to soccer - which is obviously where our focus lies in this blog. In dealing with soccer (and not all sports), one would find that a much higher percentage of state championships come from the private schools, especially with regards to the percentage of private schools vs. public schools who are participating. Looking at boys soccer only (girls is similar, but we'll use Boys Soccer stats for this purpose), there have been 116 state champions crowned in MO history and 20 of them have been public schools despite nearly 80% of schools participating being public. That's a 17% public championship clip which has only been boosted by the addition of a 4th class seven years ago. (From 1968- 2014, only 9% of state champions were from public schools.) Since then 12 of the 28 champions have been public - a much better rate (43%), but still not in line with the other sports. With the 2020 implementation of the Success Factor 3/4 of the 2020 champions were public, which does line up with the MSHSAA stats referenced above, albeit in a small sample size. We will truly have to wait to see how this changes anything over the course of the next few years, but this year’s nine private schools in the final 32 certainly are fewer than last year’s 12 out of 32. For reference sake, in 2019, the last year of the 1.35 multiplier, there were 15 private schools left in the final 32, with 12 of them in Class 1 and 2. Essentially what the new Success Factor is intended to do is push more of the successful private schools up a class or two each year until their success is, in theory, diminished by having to play larger schools and push other schools without success down. John Burroughs’ run this year marks the first example of a school dealing with a a two-class jump (the most allowed) and having success despite the higher level of competition. Guadalupe, the Class 2 championship team in 2019, also advanced in Class 3 this year.

A look at the state championship format over the years also supports our statement from yesterday. The first MSHSAA state soccer championship took place in the 1968-69 school year and was essentially just a local STL tournament because that’s where the schools were located that had soccer. (Several of the early championships were actually played in the winter as MSHSAA had designated the soccer season to run during the winter months…yikes.) For 16 years there was only one class and one champion (except the 1977 co-championship year that ended in a 2-2 draw between St. Thomas Aquinas and Bishop DuBourg) and 13 of the 17 (77%) champs were from the private school ranks - all in STL. The first non-STL to even reach the final four was the 1984 Smith-Cotton squad that finished 4th.

In 1985 a second class was added and that would stay the format for 17 years and 35 more champions (1991 saw another co-champ in the large class). 30 of the 35 (86%) champs were private schools, with 34 from the STL area. Doug McLagan’s1996 Blue Springs squad was the first “out-state” (non-STL) team to win a title when it upset CBC 1-0 in the finals. During that 17 year window, schools from the other portions of the state began to make appearance in the final four. Smithton went back-to-back to the final four in 1985-86 (no 3rd place games were played then) and the mid-MO area had its first participant in 1987 when Rock Bridge made it as a small school. The Springfield area broke into the scene when Glendale’s 1991 team advanced, finishing 4th.

The 1.35 multiple came into play in 2002, which also coincided with a third class being added to boys soccer with the recent surge of new program being added to the mix. The three class system lasted 12 years and produced 36 champions - EVERY ONE a private school. Rockhurst won four titles from that period, Cape Notre Dame three, Springfield Catholic two and Pembroke Hill one, with the rest all coming from STL.

In 2014 a fourth class was added, despite not reaching the established number of programs needed in MSHSAA’s by-laws. A petition was circulated and got enough signatures to be added to the ballot and officially voted in for the 2014 season by membership schools. The main push behind it was from (now sized) Class 3 teams who had been classified with the bigger schools and didn’t think playing against the larger private schools (in particular) was "fair." The fourth class has certainly increased these schools chances of winning titles. In fact, all seven state champs in Class 3 since the 4th class was added have been public schools from essentially the same geographic area. The quarterfinal match Saturday between Ft. Zumwalt South and Rockwood Summit features the last three Class 3 champs and could possibly lead to a fourth this year. Webster Groves (2) and Parkway Central also have class 3 titles in that period - all four schools are located within close distance to each other.

The fourth class did allow for some new programs to make final four (and championship game) appearances, but did little to break up the private school dominance in the smaller classes. Twelve of the last 14 (86%) class 1 and 2 champs have been private schools, despite making up only about 30% of those classes. Only one Class 2 public school program has won a title (Perryville ’14) and only one Class 1 team (Southern Boone ’20). SBC dropped into class 1 (likely for just a year) due to the new Success Factor having a greater impact in the beginning of its implementation, but are now back with Perryville in Class 2. Perryville is hoping to add a second title this year as the overall #2 MPR team.

As mentioned, the Success Factor will likely need to be in place a few years before any kind of analysis can be done on the impact of it and it will be interesting to see if the current six-year scoring method will be kept. Several concerns have already been voiced from throughout the state that six years is too long and “punishes” (for lack of better word) kids who would have been in elementary school when the school was having success. A recent example of Sedalia Sacred Heart (enrollment 62) playing up in Class 3 last year due to a run of success in Class 1 a few years back. The Gremlins dropped to Class 2 this year and didn’t advance in the playoffs either year. Others have wondered as to why public schools aren’t included in this formula, as well.

MSHSAA is in a tough spot here because classifications need to be done (they are now done yearly, as opposed to the past when it was a two-year cycle) and looking at each sport’s success within a school truly isn’t feasible. The private vs. public debate has long raged on not only in MO, but in most other states. What’s “fair” with regards to competition isn’t always just a simple argument of private schools “recruiting” to win in sports. The fact of the matter is that there are certain sports where private schools have had more success than publics (soccer is certainly in that category, along with some of the “country club” sports - tennis and golf, for example). Most likely that success comes more from the surrounding areas of the school. Athletes in STL, KC or Springfield, for example, have a much bigger environment to play competitively than what the out-state schools do. More/better club training and competition, plus a rich history in STL (easily one of the top cities in the country with regards to soccer history and environment) provide a different playing level than what athletes farther away from those areas do. It’s also a bit of a numbers game - 224 boys programs competed this year, with well over half of those schools located in a fair proximity to STL or KC that have ample training opportunities, better facilities and stronger competition year round.

In any case, the 2021 version of the state playoffs will certainly provide more examples and data that will likely impact the playoff system in the years ahead. The Success Factor is more than likely a flawed system in some aspects and beneficial in others. Truly finding a way to provide a “fair” playing field in MO soccer will certainly be at the topic of future debate.