Nov. 4 Update (Reviews, Previews and more)

Nov. 4 Recap/Preview and More

We have our first set of champions from another wild night in MO soccer. Eleven teams punched tickets to the postseason and five more teams advanced to finals. We have 19 championship matches on tap for tonight - the biggest final night of the week - and what looks to be a cold, crisp, but dry evening. In case you’re wondering, only two more first round matches after tonight - one each Friday and Saturday - before the new-look state playoffs begin next Saturday. 190 first-round matches in all!

Note: the team’s Missouri Power Ranking (MPR) as of Oct. 29 will be used throughout and follow the team name. Example: #1 Glendale (2) is the #2 overall team in Class 3 and #1 in its district. A decimal score listed is the difference in MPR actual points between two teams. What the MPR has found in its three years is that teams within .500 of each other have a higher probability of upset the lower the score is. In other words, two teams with a very close margin basically means it will be a toss up. In 168 matches so far, we’ve had 30 MPR upsets with only six teams being over .500 (difference between the two teams). The other 24 MPR upsets were all under .500, with an average score of .229. Overall, the MPR has accurately predicted 82.14% of games so far and teams with a +.500 have had a 96.4% chance of advancing.

The six biggest upsets so far by MPR:
John Burroughs (21) over Chaminade (3) .8311 (last night)
Hancock (34) over St. Paul (Farmington) 26 .820
North Kansas City (55) over Park Hill South (29) .760
Crossroads (32) over STEAM (15) .749 (last night)
Borgia (19) over Father Tolton (8) .688 (last night)
Guadalupe (12) over Pembroke Hill (4) .512

District Championships
We will start last night’s recap in Class 3, District 5 where #1 Glendale (2) and #3 Springfield Catholic (9), two of the most storied teams in Springfield, battled in an instant classic. Glendale took a 2-0 lead early in the second half, but the Irish responded with two goals within a minute of each other with 13 minutes to play. Glendale showed some moxie and punched in a goal with 18 seconds left on a desperation corner kick to win its 10th consecutive district title and 25th overall for MO Hall of Fame coach Jeff Rogers. Heartbreak for the Irish and coach Mike Hines, who were certainly good enough to be worthy of state play.

The northwest part of the state had three intriguing matchups and they didn’t disappoint. In Class 1, District 8 #2 Maryville (4) edged #1 Summit Christian Academy (5) in OT, 2-1 to advance to the playoffs for the 4th time since 2015. In class 2, District 8, #2 Chillicothe (8) kept its winning streak alive at 18 with a 1-0 win over Bishop LeBlond (6) and avenging its last loss back on Sept. 9. Home field certainly didn’t hurt in what looked to be a quality final. The Hornets make the playoffs for the 4th time and win 20 for the first time. The Class 3, District 8 final saw upstart #3 Guadalupe (by seeding) (12) take out host Platte Co. (13) 3-1. Guadalupe has shown over the past few years to be a tough out in the playoffs - winning the 2019 Class 2 title with just 15 players on the roster, but with loads of athleticism and talent. They seem to be hot at the right time.

Class 1 saw two finals, with a top seed going down. #2 Borgia’s (19) late goal from distance gave it a 1-0 win over #1 Father Tolton (8) at home in District 4 and avenged an early season loss to Tolton. The Knights advance to the playoffs for the first time since 2015 after entering the postseason with just three regular season wins.

In District 5, #1 Laquey (24) rolled to a 5-1 win over #2 Dixon (13) to avenge two regular season losses to the Bulldogs. Laquey returns to the playoffs for the sixth time in nine years.

The game everyone was waiting for in St. Louis Class 2, District 3 didn’t disappoint, either. #2 Whitfield (1) pushed past #1 Westminster Christian (2) 2-0. Whitfield, a class 1 finalist last season that returned a large bulk of its roster, was the elite small school program in MO for many years and has seven titles and three second place finishes in its history, but hasn’t won one since 2010. These two teams topped Class 2 most of the season, but Whitfield wins the one that counts for advancement.

Also in Class 2, #1 Perryville (3) and its high-powered offense cruised past #2 Saxony-Lutheran (14) 3-0. Perryville, the 2014 Class 2 champs and 2015 finalists, have scored 121 goals on the season and reach the playoffs for the first time since that 2015 year.

District 5 #1 Logan-Rogersville (5) advanced for the first time with a 3-1 win over #2 School of the Osage (13), which was also seeking its first playoff berth. L-R’s 3-1 semifinal victory over perennial champ Monett (winners of the nine previous titles) opened the door for a new postseason face.

In the other Class 3 title game last night, #1 Rockwood Summit (17) cruised to a 6-0 win over #2 Capital City (18) in what could be the most impressive win of the night. The Falcons were never tested in this district, winning the three matches by a combined 22-0. Despite the 11-10 record entering play, Summit’s brutal in-season schedule had them ready for the postseason, while Cap City finishes its best season yet at 15-8. Summit looks primed for a run at its third state title in six years and first since its magical 29-0-1 crown in 2019.

The only Class 4 final last night saw #3 Blue Springs (17) get two late first half goals en route to a 3-0 win over #4 Rock Bridge (26) in Columbia. It marks the second consecutive playoff appearance for Blue Springs after a 13-year dry spell. The Wildcats were the first Class 4 team outside of STL to win a state title back in 1996.

In semifinal action last night, four Class 4 schools with big pedigrees faced off in STL. The big stunner of the evening on paper was #3 John Burroughs (21) 1-0 win over #2 Chaminade (3) - the biggest upset of the tournament based on MPR (.831). However, the Bombers are an elite program and Coach Alan Trzecki is no stranger to playing and winning big games. Chaminade had nipped JB 2-1 only a few weeks back, so this one was likely always going to be a battle of two of the best coaches and programs in the state in what is a loaded district. This was just a semifinal! JB’s reward is to face #1 SLUH (2), who cruised past Howell North (37) 5-0 at SLUH Saturday, which should at least give the Bombers a chance to rest and prepare as heavy underdogs.

In Class 1, District 3, #3 Crossroads (34) toppled #2 STEAM (17) 6-1 in what could be considered a shocker based on MPR (.749). It was the fourth biggest upset of the tournament based on MPR. Crossroads now turns around to play overall #1 Lutheran St. Charles tonight in the finals at Canton.

Class 2, District 4 semis in Winfield saw #1 Southern Boone (12) beat #5 Winfield (30) 3-0 and #3 Christian (27) eliminate #2 Fulton (16) in penalties after a 1-1 full time. The two will play in Friday’s only contest. If Southern Boone wins it will set up a rematch of the Class 1 final from last year against Whitfield that SBC won 1-0. SBC will be a heavy favorite (.560) as it plays in its 13th consecutive final where it has won 11 straight since a 2009 loss. Christian looks to get back to the playoffs for the first time since a 4-year run ended in 2020.

Thursday’s Finals (MPR favorite will have score next to name - the lower the score, the closer the two teams are)
Class 1
St. Pius (Festus) (3) (.44) vs. Bishop DuBourg (11)
Gateway (7) .15 vs. Brentwood (10)
Lutheran St. Charles (1) (1.79) vs. Crossroads (32)
College Heights (6) (.45) vs. Fair Grove (12)
Smithton (2) (1.34) vs. Knob Noster (27)

The top two teams in Class 1 look to have smoother paths tonight, while the Gateway-Brentwood game could be a toss up.

Class 2
Affton (7) (.20) vs. St. Mary’s (11)
Harrisonville (21) (.15) vs. Barstow (26)
Excelsior Springs (9) (.04) vs. Marshall (10)

All three Class 2 finals tonight are tight with regards to MPR scores. Look for close games in each. Harrisonville and St. Mary’s each made the playoffs last season and will look for experience to play a factor. Excelsior looks to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2015, while Marshall tries for its first appearance since 2017. Barstow will try to return to the playoffs for the 9th time since 2010 after sitting out last year due to Covid concerns. The Knights won Class 1 titles in 2014 and 2018 and were bumped to Class 2 because of the success factor.


Class 3
Mehlville (3) (.22) vs. Cape Notre Dame (5)
Ladue (6) (.38) vs. Webster Groves (15)
Ft. Zumwalt South (1) (.94) vs. Ft. Zumwalt East (20)
Neosho (8) (.29) vs. Bolivar (19)
William Chrisman (10) (.16) vs. Van Horn (21)

Mehlville is the #2 seed based on losing a coin toss to #1 seed Cape ND, but both have been in the top of the rankings all year. Mehlville gets a boost by hosting, as well. On the other side of the state, William Chrisman and Van Horn are separated by just a little over three miles and know each other well - should make for a great atmosphere, even if the game is played in Warrensburg. #1 Zumwalt South will try to avoid the trend of district rivals pulling the upset that has already happened multiple times in 2021. Webster Groves is a slight underdog against Ladue, but WG has piled up four state trophies since 2014, including championships in 2014-15. Ladue had its run of eight straight playoffs snapped last year but have won 20 so far in ’21 as the #1 seed. One of its six losses came against WG just a few weeks ago.

Class 4
Jackson (19) (.40) vs. Vianney (36)
CBC (4) (.31) vs. Marquette (6)
St. Dominic (11) (.03) vs. Liberty (Wentzville) (13)
Kickapoo (10) (.46) vs. Carthage (30)
Rockhurst (1) (.74) vs. Lee’s Summit West (8)
Liberty (7) (.39) vs. Park Hill (23)

Vianney is the lowest remaining school left in the playoffs, but the Griffins’ rich history and home field could make the District 1 final an even one. Dominic-Liberty is also a backyard showdown of two teams who already played 0-0. This one is also on a neutral pitch at Howell. CBC-Marquette is old school power vs. the upstart on a neutral field. Carthage also looks to pull off a district upset 3-peat by taking out all of the top 3 teams at home if it can get by Kickapoo. LSW will look to topple #1 overall Rockhurst at LSN and get some payback for losing to Rockhurst 2-1 last season in the sectionals.