Nov. 2 Update

Monday Recap:

A 42 game schedule on a cold, damp Monday led to even more upsets as district play rolls on. Tonight will be the last night without a district championship match being played for the rest of the week.

Wednesday - 11 championship games

Thursday - 19 championship games

Friday - 1 championship game

Saturday - 1 championship game

Nine districts (out of the 32) already have the two finalists set, which means tonight is a big semi final night across the state.

On to Monday's recap...

Half the games as Saturday, but 8 more upsets based on seeding.

The biggest upset based on MPR scores was #5 Hancock's 2-1 win over #4 St. Paul Farmington, which was a .83 difference - the biggest of the tournament so far. Hancock's strength of regular season schedule with several class 2 and 3 schools likely bridged the gap.

Two #1 seeds went down last night, as well. In Class 3, district 8,  #1 Pembroke Hill (4 overall) got knocked out by #4 Guadalupe (12 overall) 5-3. This district was targeted as one of the more difficult with several quality teams capable of going on a run. Host Platte Co. (13) actually will go into the final against Guadalupe as a slight underdog based on MPR numbers. Platte Co. knocked off Guadalupe 3-0 earlier in the year, but Guadalupe hasn't lost since that match other than a forfeit loss at Rock Bridge.

Speaking of Rock Bridge, the #4 Bruins (26) shocked #1 Hickman (9) in Class 4, District 6 1-0 in 2OT last night on RB's home field. The MPR deficit of .43 definitely qualifies RB's win as a major shocker so far based on the eye test, but whenever two local rivals square off in the playoffs, there is certainly a different factor in play. Hickman had only topped RB 1-0 in the regular season. Another potential inkling of this taking place was RB's 2-1 loss to Gateway Legacy Academy, a team ineligible for MSHSAA playoffs and thus not considered in any MPR polls, the same weekend that Hickman lost 5-1 to Gateway. Gateway (18-3-1) was recently ranked #5 in the MO Max Prep polls.

That wasn't the only upset in Columbia last night. #3 Blue Springs (17) also topped a city rival by slipping past #3 Blue Springs South (14) 1-0. The two had split regular season matches, but a two hour trip east on neutral turf this time favored the lower seed, although there was only a .05 difference in the MPR.

Both Lafayette (35) in class 4 over Kirkwood (32) and Willard (44) in class 3 over Grandview (41) pulled upsets based on MPR scores, but the district had them correctly seeded.

Another (by seed) upset included #3 Springfield Catholic's (9) surprising 5-1 win over #2 Branson (7). Branson had knocked off the Irish in the opening week of the season 1-0, but the Irish had gone 8-1 in October so they are playing well to get that kind of separation on a solid Branson squad that had won 12 of its last 13.

In class 2 #5 Oak Grove (24) rolled past #4 Sacred Heart (20) 3-0. The Gremlins, after playing in a class 3 district final last year, dropped to class 2 this year, but couldn't survive the opening round.

Other notes from Monday...it wasn't an upset by seeding or MPR, but Capital City knocked off last year's Class 4 semifinalist Jeff City 2-0 to reach its first ever district final in year #3. Monett's impressive string of 9 district champions in a row came to an end against #1 seed Logan-Rogersville, 2-1. The Cubs had been in the playoffs 9 consecutive years under coach Cris Villa, but this was the Cubs first losing season since 2011.

Tuesday's preview...we'll look at games with differences of less than .50 as those tend to be where upsets occur.

Class 1 (13 games on the schedule)

Several potential upsets based on MPR numbers as Class 1 has a hefty slate of games. (higher seed listed first with MPR difference after - the lower the score, the closer the teams in MPR).

Borgia-MMA .07

Dixon-Crocker .08

Knob Noster-Lone Jack .19

New Covenant-Fair Grove .34

Bishop DuBourg-Valley Park .36

Laquey-Iberia .44

Brentwood-Metro .47

Class 2 (7 games on the schedule)

District 4 quarters

St. Charles West-Winfield .02 (Winfield is actually slightly favored by MPR and has the benefit of playing at home, but SCW is only a few years removed from playing in the class 2 final)

Christian-Wright City .001. Toss up here. Wright City is finishing up year #3 as a program and looking to top an established Christian team.

The district 7 semifinals in KC should make for some competitive soccer tonight.

#1 Harrisonville (21) -#4 St. Pius (33) .31

Barstow(26) -Center (35) .29.

A competitive district with two schools who would normally be a Class 1 by enrollment (Barstow and Pius) hoping to make the finals.

District 6 semi

Marshall-Odessa .19. Odessa's had its best season in its five year history and a far cry from the initial squad that was forced to travel to St. Louis for its initial playoff game against state champ John Burroughs in 2017.

Class 3 (10 games)

District 1

While not close enough point wise to be considered an upset alert, the #3 seed Cape Central vs. #2 Mehlville match could be interesting. Both teams with solid years.

District 2

Webster Groves-MICDS .05 that barely favors MICDS despite the seeding. Defending Class 2 champ Rams moved up this year.

District 3

#2 Zumwalt East vs. #3 Hannibal .27. The winner likely gets to play overall #1 Zumwalt South.

District 6

Bolivar-Webb City .31. Bolivar won the in season match 4-3.

District 7

Van Horn-Grain Valley .02. Very even match up on paper with both teams winning 14 matches this year.

Class 4 (12 games)

District 1 could be a wild one tonight.

#1 Jackson (19) vs. #4 Northwest (28) .20

#2 Vianney (36) vs. #3 Oakville (20) .35 favors Oakville...one of the biggest discrepancies (number wise) in the seedings this year. Sort it on the field!

District 2

Marquette (6)  vs. DeSmet (15) .24. DeSmet a perennial final four team under Coach Klein, but Marquette has had the better overall season. High quality here.

District 4

#1 St. Dominic (11) vs. #5 Howell Central (33) .45. Might be a stretch for Central to get two upsets in a tough district, but the numbers say it's possible.

#2 Liberty (Wentzville) (13) vs. #4 Howell (12) favors Howell slightly .02. Very competitive night ahead.

District 5

#1 Kickapoo (10) -#4 Joplin (27) .42

#2 Nixa (16) vs. #6 Carthage (30) .30

These four know a lot about each other and host Carthage may gain a slight bump as an underdog playing at home. Kickapoo and Joplin didn't play this year, but Kickapoo has been solid most of the year and Joplin has had several games lately get away from them. Nixa is just 2-4 in the past several weeks, but one of those wins was a 9-1 win over Carthage. Who knows what to expect here.

District 7

Overall class 4 #1 Rockhurst plays the lowest ranked class 4 Ray-Pec (38), while two rivals - Lee's Summit (5) and Lee's Summit West (8) - should have the center stage in this district tonight. LS a slight favorite via MPR at .32.

District 8

Overall #7 Liberty leads this group tonight. Neither game is in the upset range, but both games feature teams very familiar with each other. If seeding and MPR hold out, Liberty and Park Hill (23) should advance.

Big night ahead...stay warm and enjoy the competition!