Nov. 18 Final Four Preview
by Admin on 11/18/21
In what has been a historical and competitive postseason marked with Cinderella runs, shocking upsets and heart-stopping matches, Missouri’s 54th official high school season culminates this weekend at the Worldwide Technology Soccer Park in Fenton with 16 schools vying for the title of state champion in four different classes.
The finals weekend is the third consecutive to have all four classes playing on the same weekend and marks a return to WWT after last year’s finals were played at Lake County Complex in Springfield. Due to Covid, only semifinals Friday and finals Saturday were played with co-third place finishers awarded for the first time since 1990. Previously, third place games were played seven times in the first 23 years of the tournament until the 1991 change to add the 3rd place games in 1991. WWT (formerly St. Louis Soccer Park, AB Conference Sports Centre, Anheuser-Busch Center) is the most familiar site of the finals (this is year 31) and a favorite of Missouri soccer fans due to its multi-field availability, picturesque setting along the river and colorful local history resonating with names and teams from the past. Previously, the finals were held for four years in Blue Springs (2011-2015) while Lindenwood (1978-85), Washington University, O’Fallon Tech High School, Musial Field and Normandy High School hosted the early finals.
The decision in 2014 to move boys soccer into four classes, along with last year’s implementation of the Championship Factor placed on successful private/charter schools, has changed the landscape of the final four in one drastic way - 2021 will mark one of the fewest with private schools participating (by percentage) in the final four of any year since the first playoff in 1968. Just five private schools will compete this weekend (31%), eclipsed only by the previous low of 25% (2 of 8) in 1986. No other year has been less than 43% and all of those came after the four classes came into play. (The 2002 final four - the first with three classes - was nearly all private, 11 of 12.) For context, private schools make up just under 24% of the total number of teams participating in boys soccer, so this year’s numbers are actually closer in alignment.
Despite the lower than usual numbers, history, both past and present, still favors those private schools this weekend. As discussed last week (according to the MSHSAA state program/website), private schools have won all but 20 of the 116 state championships in boys soccer (82.8%). Fun fact: 13 private schools account for 75 of the 116 championships, led by Aquinas-Mercy (and its other collaborations) with 11 and CBC with 10. Four public schools are tied with two each and three of those four earned their titles once the fourth class was added. Oakville (1976, 2000) is the only public school to win two prior to 2014.
Since 2002, 52 of the 64 champions have been private (81.3%). Since the 2014 four-class move, public schools have fared better, winning 12 of 28, including all seven in class 3 - a trend that will continue this year as all four class 3 teams are public. (Note: class 3 typically has a smaller number of private schools within its 64 than the other three classes. Only four private schools have reached a class 3 final four since 2014 and just one, Cape Notre Dame in 2020, played in a final.)
While the deep and colorful traditions of the tournament perhaps paint a general perspective, what’s likely more important is the current bios of the teams playing this weekend. Based on the updated Missouri Power Rankings (MPR current through quarterfinal play), all four overall #1 teams in each class advanced to the final four and three of those four were from the private ranks. Simply put, the four teams that finished the regular season atop the MPR rankings are still playing and are likely considered the favorites going into the weekend. Three #2 teams are also still alive, along with two #4 teams.
All that being said, each team playing this weekend survived a two-week test and all were tested in some way. Eleven of the 16 were district #1 seeds, while two others were two seeds. Three #3 seeds bucked the odds and won at least two upsets to advance. MSHSAA awarded 32 district champions this year in soccer and 27 were either #1 or #2 seeds, so the three #3 seeds (Fair Grove, Blue Springs and John Burroughs) have proven their mettle after entering with less than a 19% chance of even advancing from districts, let alone the quarters.
Missouri Power Ranking (MPR) Notes: The number in the first ( ) is the NEWEST MPR after quarterfinal play. A (+.00) number is the difference between the two teams. The lower the number, the closer the two teams are based on the MPR. Typically, a number under (+.5000) means that there is a better chance of a possible “upset.” There were 37 occurrences (out of 205 games) of teams with under a (+.5000) upsetting a higher ranked team, while there were only nine games that teams with a (+.5000) lost. Jackson and John Burroughs (2) combined for three of those nine upsets.
If there is any team who has escaped postseason drama this year, it’s St. Pius. Brentwood ended the Lancers’ seven-game shutout streak in the quarters, but that was the only blemish in the 7-1 win. Fair Grove, on the other hand, took little note of its #3 district seed in reaching its second final four with this senior class. First-year coach Krista Miller has guided the Eagles to six straight wins. Both teams have shown the ability to find the net, but the Lancers defense (0.9 Goals Against Average) could be the deciding factor. Neither team has ever reached a final, but Pius does have four 3rd places and one 4th. Fair Grove finished third in 2018.
Lutheran St. Charles (1) (+.2475) vs. Maryville (4) Friday 12:00 p.m.
The second Class 1 semifinal matches two similar teams with similar backgrounds. Both schools are in their first semifinal and both reached that spot with dramatic quarterfinal wins. LSC, #1 most of the year, escaped Borgia in penalties at home, while Maryville got a 74th minute goal to knock out previously undefeated Smithton on the road. The Cougars haven’t lost (12-0-1) since a 5-0 match against Class 2 #1 Whitfield Oct. 1, while the Spoofhounds entered into the postseason on a down note with a 7-0 loss against LeBlond. In fact, when things go bad for Maryville, they go bad quickly as they’ve given up 27 goals in their five losses. On the bright side, Maryville is able to stay in games with its offense that averages just over 4 goals per match.
Each team entered the playoffs as the district #1 seed, but the two paths to the semis were quite different. Perryville stayed at home and won its three playoff games by a 16-1 margin, including a 6-1 quarterfinal win over previous playoff nemesis St. Mary’s. Excelsior Springs won both district games in Odessa by shutout and then had to rally Saturday at Logan-Rogersville from two second half deficits to force extra time and eventually penalties before persevering. Perryville (since 2009) hasn’t had a losing season - usually behind its offense, which has statistically put up better numbers than ever before this year (5.1 Goals Per Game), but its stingy defense has also been up to the task (.8 GAA). ES, on the other hand, has been sporadic over the years - including last season’s 5-14 mark, but Zac Ganzer’s squad keeps finding a way and have made a 13 game improvement since last year. Perryville has won both previous semi appearances, while the Tigers won its only other semi way back in 2004.
Whitfield (1) (.9379) vs. Harrisonville (16) 5:00 p.m. Friday
On paper this is the biggest discrepancy between two teams playing Friday. The Warriors enter the semi with all the history (7 titles, 3 2nd place in 10 attempts), the recent success (#1 or #2 in MPR all season) and even some motivation after losing last year’s Class 1 final 1-0. Whitfield bumped up a class with most of last year’s core intact and a new coach in Charlie Noonan, but had to navigate the most difficult Class 2 district with Westminster (3) and Orchard Farm (5). The quarters proved less stressful in a 6-0 victory over Christian (21). The Wildcats, while a #1 district seed despite its losing mark, haven’t had an easy night on the pitch in almost a month. Dan Coleman’s squad lost the last two regular season matches by a goal each (including a 1-0 decision at Excelsior Springs) before slipping past St. Pius (KC) in OT and Barstow 4-3 in 2OT in the district finals. The quarters weren’t much easier as a 72nd minute goal proved to be the difference in a 1-0 win over Chillicothe. The Wildcats will have to be sharp defensively and efficient on restarts if it wants to take out the Class 2 favorite.
Class 3’s rookie of the final four (Ladue) meets up with the most experience squad (Glendale) in what could be the most even match of the day. Glendale coach Jeff Rogers has pretty much seen it all and done it all in his 31 seasons - all except for win a state title. He’s closing in on 600 boys wins, something only four other MO coaches have accomplished, and with a big girls season could eclipse 1,000 wins in the spring. The Falcons have made things interesting in the postseason - nearly blowing a two-goal lead in the district final against Catholic and hanging on to a 3-0 lead for a 3-2 win in Saturday’s quarter against Neosho. Ladue coach Dave Aronberg is no stranger to the postseason, but this year marks Ladue’s first final four appearance after a decade of district dominance. In a rare common opponent comparison Friday, both teams lost to Pembroke Hill during the season: Ladue 3-0 and Glendale 4-0. That was Glendale’s only loss in the past 20 games. Ladue entered the playoffs losing three of four but arguably played its best match of the year in Saturday’s 2-0 quarter win at Mehlville.
Van Horn (10) vs. Ft. Zumwalt South (1) (+.6875) 1:30 p.m. Friday
Ft. Zumwalt South coach Jim Layne and his Bulldogs have gone all year wearing the defending champion target on their collective backs and seem to rise up when challenged behind its experienced squad as evidenced by its come-from-behind quarter win over Rockwood Summit. A big Bulldog weekend would give them their third title in four years and make Layne the only public coach to win three boys titles. FZS topped Van Horn in the 2018 semis en route to its first state title in the only other meeting. Both teams did defeat East (KC) in the regular season, FZS 9-1 and VH 5-3. Van Horn also had to eliminate local rivals Guadalupe in the quarters and William Chrisman in the district finals behind an improved defense that has only allowed two goals in its seven game win streak. The Falcons will need that kind of staunch defensive effort if it wants to pull the upset against a salty FZS squad.
Jackson (17) vs. Blue Springs (8) (+.2578) 4:00 p.m. Friday
Zack Walton’s Jackson squad and Mike Palermo’s Wildcats went 1-1 against common opponents. Jackson lost to Kickapoo 4-0, while Blue Springs edged Kickapoo Saturday 1-0. Jackson took out Lee’s Summit West 2-1, while BS lost to LSW 2-1 in OT. Jackson is coming off a big OT win at home against Marquette - continuing a two-season run of extra time playoff success, while the Wildcats are used to road playoff games after three trips to Columbia for districts and a trip to Springfield for the quarters.
Rockhurst (1) (.+7931) vs. John Burroughs (11) 7:00 p.m. Friday
