Nov. 12 Quarterfinal Preview

Nov. 12 Quarterfinal Preview

After a long week off from games it is nearly go time for the 32 playoff qualifiers. Along with the usual case of big-game jitters, it is entirely possible that players will be working out the rust a bit from a long layoff in the early minutes of matches. Teams that played well and advanced last week will be trying to ride that  same momentum which is often difficult to do over an extended layoff. Players should have benefitted from the rest and coaches will have had ample time to prepare - in several cases for teams unfamiliar to them. In others, there will be some rematches of games from earlier in the year. One note - only two of the matches will be played after dark (Van Horn/Guadalupe at 5 and Rockwood Summit/Ft. Zumwalt South at 6). While certainly a temperature difference, both games’ environments should benefit from the extra dimension of playing under the lights, especially since each game is going to feature programs that have won state championships recently.

As always, one main factor will come into play with host schools fields in the mix. Home teams definitely get a boost due to familiarity, environment and less travel. It looks as though wet weather will not be a factor, except for possibly the night games getting slick.

Note: MPR will be in ( ) and a positive number will show the difference in MPR points between the two teams.

Class 1
There will be a first-time champion in Class 1 for the second consecutive year as all eight schools and the four top-ranked teams according to the Missouri Power Rankings (MPR) battle to advance. Historically, St. Pius X (Festus) has the most playoff appearances with 14, but none of the current players have played in a playoff game before. Smithton, Maryville and Lutheran St. Charles are all repeat district champions so possess the most experience. Fair Grove’s seniors were part of the school’s third place team in 2018.

Brentwood (10) at St. Pius X (Festus) (3) (+.32)
Brentwood (13-7)  is making its third playoff appearance and first in 2017. Pius (16-6) also last reached in 2017, but has been a frequent playoff team over its long history. Not only does Pius have a stronger tradition, but Brentwood has never beat Pius in 12 previous attempts. Pius also thumped the Eagles earlier in the season 7-0.

Fair Grove (12) (+.46) at Laquey (24)
Two teams very familiar with each other are also very even historically. Saturday’s quarter will mark the 19th game between the two - each winning nine. Fair Grove (14-8) beat Laquey (10-13-1) 3-1 last month and also knocked the Hornets out of last year’s district tournament, 1-0 that ended a two-year run of playoff appearances. Three of the last four results have been 1-0 finals.

St. Francis Borgia (19) at Lutheran St. Charles (1) (+1.14)
On paper this one seems like the biggest mismatch of the day as Borgia comes in with just a 5-18 record against the the state’s top class 1 team, but Borgia’s demanding schedule and playoff history (5-1) against Lutheran (19-5-1) could make this closer than what it seems. Three of Borgia’s wins have come in the last four games, including a big upset of Father Tolton in the district finals. LSC has cruised through the playoffs and hasn’t lost since Oct. 1 against Class 2 #1 Whitfield. This is Borgia’s first trip to the playoffs since finishing 3rd in 2015, while LSC has the experience factor of advancing last season. Each team lost to St. Mary’s…Borgia 2-0 and LSC 1-0.

Maryville (4) at Smithton (2) (+.20)
These two will meet for the first time for a final four spot on the line in what is the closest MPR game in Class 1. Smithton is the state’s only undefeated team remaining (23-0), while the Spoofhounds carry a 14-5-1 mark. Both teams advanced last season, so both have the experience. One common opponent - Sacred Heart, a team Smithton topped 2-1 and one Maryville tied 2-2.

Class 2
Plenty of history in Class 2 as three (St. Mary’s, Whitfield and Perryville) of the eight remaining have rich playoff history and a combined 14 championships. St. Mary’s advances for the 34th time in its rich history, while Whitfield looks for its 8th title after losing in last year’s class 1 final. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Logan-Rogersville and longtime coach Brett Wubbena make their first playoff appearance.

St. Mary’s (11) at Perryville (3) (+.46)
A lot of green happening in Perryville tomorrow in a classic battle of offense (Perryville averages 5 goals a game) vs. defense (St. Mary’s allows .8). Perryville (21-3) looks to be a strong favorite here at home (away teams have struggled here historically), but has never beat the Dragons (11-7-1) in four tries, including last year’s district matchup. Perryville makes its fifth playoff under Jerry Fulton and has a 2014 title and 2015 runner up trophy, while St. Mary’s has six titles - the last coming in 2010.

Christian (27) at Whitfield (1) (+1.13)
Two seemingly opposite teams meet up at Whitfield’s beautiful facility in what features the top seed and the lowest remaining team of all classes, but each team’s road through the playoffs was very similar. Upstart Christian (11-10) knocked off 2020 qualifier Fulton in penalties and then eliminated defending Class 1 champ Southern Boone 1-0, ending the state’s longest playoff streak at 11. In the meantime, Whitfield, despite its 1 MPR number was the 2 seed in District 3 and had to take out both #4 Orchard Farm in the semis and #2 Westminster in the finals. In both cases, each team earned a spot in the quarters. Whitfield was the small class juggernaut from 2002-2010 under Hall of Fame coach Bill Daues, winning seven titles. Christian reaches for the eighth time but has yet to advance to a final four.

Excelsior Springs (9) at Logan-Rogersville (5) (+.17)
Closely matched in MPR, no common opponents and a first-time ever meeting between two new to the postseason teams should make for a great environment in Rogersville. Excelsior Springs advances for the third time and first since 2015, but the real story here is Coach Zac Ganzer’s squad improving from 5 wins last season to 17-5 this year. L-R’s (19-4) slow build to a playoff appearance came when it eliminated perennial SW power Monett in the district semifinal before topping another first-time hopeful Osage 3-1 in the final.

Chillicothe (8) (+.54) at Harrisonville (21)
Chillicothe (20-3) makes the journey into Harrisonville (9-10-1) as one of the state’s hottest teams. The Hornets haven’t lost since Sept.9, winning 18 in a row and return to the playoffs for the 4th time and first since 2019. Harrisonville’s record may not be as gaudy, but Coach Dan Coleman’s Wildcats play a demanding schedule and have the edge in common opponent win scores (each team defeated Knob Noster and St. Pius (KC) as well as the advantage of playing at home. Harrisonville makes its 8th playoff appearance and finished 4th in 2017 while Chillicothe looks for its first trip to STL.

Class 3
For those wanting to see a seeding done after district play, Class 3 is about as close as you can get. Mix in several region rivalries and all kinds of championship pedigrees and that should make for a fun Saturday in this class. Defending champ Ft. Zumwalt South hosts another recent champ in Rockwood Summit, while Guadalupe is only two years away from winning the 2019 Class 2 title. Glendale’s legendary coach Jeff Rogers is no stranger to postseason play while Mehlville and Ladue have been lurking at the top of the rankings all year. Neosho and Van Horn may not be class 3 household names, but both are very capable of making a run.

Mehlville (3) (+26) at Ladue (6)
These two have only met twice (Ladue winning both in 2018 and 19), but share eight common opponents that shows Mehlville (18-2-1) with a slight advantage (and higher MPR score) over Ladue (21-6-1), but a home field advantage could slide toward the Rams as Mehlville’s two losses and tie both came on the road. Each team enters play after winning very difficult districts and both teams have experience in the playoffs. Mehlville makes its 12th trip, while Ladue is in its 10th after having a streak of eight snapped last year. Mehlville has one final four berth (2007), while Ladue seeks its first ever trip.

Neosho (8) at Glendale (2) (+.48)
Each team knows nothing BUT the playoffs as both have advanced over recent history. Neosho  (14-4) is on its 5th consecutive run, while Glendale (24-3) is at 10 and 25th overall. That’s where the similarities end, as Glendale seeks its 8th final four (two 2nd, two 3rd three 4th) and Neosho its first trip. The two teams met on Sept. 10 with Glendale gaining a 2-0 win. The Falcons also knocked Neosho out of the 2018 and 2020 playoffs in the only other meetings. Neosho had an easier time in the districts, pulling away from Bolivar in the second half for a 3-1 win, while Glendale survived a wild one against local foe Springfield Catholic, scoring the game-winner with 18 seconds left in regulation after letting a 2-0 lead disappear.

Rockwood Summit (17) at Ft. Zumwalt South (1) (+.88)
The road to a championship has gone through this region for the past several years and could again this year. This is the 4th time in six years the two have met in the playoffs with Summit (14-10) winning the first two and FZS (22-3) 1-0 last year en route to a state title. Summit was under .500 before going on its current five-game winning streak and cruising to a district title - its 12th and third consecutively. The Falcons won titles in 2016 and 2019. The Bulldogs had a trickier time in the district final when it slipped past a game FZE squad 2-1 for its 8th consecutive appearance and 11th overall. FZS will try to advance for its fifth time to a final four where it has two titles (2018 and 2020 and two thirds 2014, 2016).

Guadalupe (12 (+.16) at Van Horn (21)
Saturday marks the 18th match since 2010 between the two with each winning 8 and adding a draw, but it will mark the first time they have met for a final four berth. Guadalupe (12-6) topped Van Horn (16-7-1) 4-1 Oct. 19, but this game will be in Independence and Van Horn hasn’t lost since. Expect plenty of offense here as both teams field quality scorers and suspect defenses (each is giving up over 1.5 goals per game). Guadalupe won Class 2 in 2019 and makes its fourth appearance, while Van Horn is also in its 5th playoff, finishing third in 2018.

Class 4
#1 overall Rockhurst looks like the clear cut favorite - tops in MPR, history on its side with its 40th playoff appearance (most ever in MO) and a bit of a hunger after not having been to a final four since 2018 - but Class 4 could be a wide-open affair that features plenty of worthy challengers. 2020’s surprise champ Jackson is back, perennial small school power John Burroughs has already knocked off two of the top three teams in the same week and Marquette has been on the upward swing with a big district win over CBC. Liberty got over the St. Dominic hurdle for the first time and is obviously playing well, while Kickapoo and Blue Springs are playoff ready. Park Hill has the biggest challenge by number, but has several players with final four experience. The Championship Factor has certainly opened this class up for the taking.

Marquette (6) (+.32) at Jackson (19)
Newly named STL Hall of Fame Coach Chris Kenny hopes to keep Marquette’s (16-4-1) magical year going with a win at the defending champs field. One possible factor to consider - Marquette is 5-0 against common opponents while Jackson (17-7-2) is 0-4-1 - but soccer math is often misleading, especially against a team that plays a slightly different style like Zack Walton’s Indians do. The rest of Class 4 found that out last year. Jackson is no stranger to the playoffs in general with five appearances in the past six years, while Marquette is only in its third appearance since 2014 and seventh total. Jackson will have to defend better than its 1.5 GAA shows to have a chance.

Blue Springs (17) at Kickapoo (10) (+.21)
Road warriors Blue Springs heads to Springfield for its fourth away match of the playoffs in a contest showcasing two different geographic areas. Blue Springs (14-8) is actually representing the “central” area after traveling to Columbia three times last week and winning that district over host Rock Bridge 3-0 to advance for the second consecutive year and 15th overall. The Wildcats own one title - a landmark championship in 1996 that gave someone other than a STL team a first place trophy. Kickapoo (20-6-1) held off upset-minded Carthage to win its district and advance for the first time since finishing 4th in 2017. Blue Springs will need to slow down Kickapoo’s high flying offense (3.4 goals per game), while Kickapoo hopes to make a final four for the fourth time.

Liberty (Wentzville) (13) (+.17) at John Burroughs (21)
If you penciled in a state bracket prior to the playoffs starting, you likely wouldn’t have picked this one. Liberty finally solved nemesis and state power St. Dominic to advance for the second time in its eight-year history, while Burroughs surprised STL with wins over Pattonville, Chaminade (3) and SLUH (2). Despite neither team maybe being expected to be here, both have the tools to make some noise and tomorrow’s match (first ever meeting) should be a fun one. The Bombers host, but won’t be playing on the grass field that usually ranks as one of the best in the state. Instead (likely to accommodate the crowd), the game will be played on the stadium turf field. JB is one of the better environments to play in and these two should bring plenty of support. Burroughs is no stranger to playoff atmosphere, winning four titles, the last in 2018 to go along with four other state trophies. Both teams are stingy defensively and have similar MPR numbers so a restart could make a big difference here.

Park Hill (23) at Rockhurst (1) (1.09)
It’s been a little strange to NOT see a Rockhurst team in the final four for a while and the Hawklets (21-2) certainly look to be on their way to ending that mini streak against a battle-tested Park Hill (15-8-1) team that actually has more final experience than the Rockhurst squad. Still, the odds seem stacked against PH as Rockhurst has been dominant most of the year. Rockhurst hosts, has the championship pedigree (25 state trophies and 40 appearances) and hasn’t lost since late September (and that was to an out of state school, Marquette Jesuit). Maybe more importantly, the Hawklets have only given up .4 goals per game. This is also a rematch of last year’s playoff where PH upset Rockhurst 1-0 on its way to a 3rd place finish, so Coach Josh Marchbank knows how to create an upset and if anything Class 4 has been littered with those throughout 2021.