Girls PostSeason#1

After two days and 123 games, the girls playoff season is rolling along and quickly reaching the end with quarterfinals scheduled in 11 days (May 28) and the final four a week after that (June 3-4). Hopefully the weather holds out and games can stay on schedule, but it would seem that most districts chose to play early (68 games Saturday and 55 on Monday) in case the spring storms do pop up. Good choice so far!

Tonight’s schedule is also heavy with mostly district semifinals in play. 30 games tonight, 17 Wednesday, 16 Thursday and 1 set for Friday means that we should have our quarterfinalists set by the weekend in all four classes.

So far, it’s been mostly status quo based on seeding and Missouri Power Rankings order. Both the seedings and MPR have been 108/123 (88%) in correctly predicting the winners (even though not all the games were the same).

One thing that the MPR has shown over the past few years is that games with teams within .50 of each other are at higher risk of upsets than those beyond .51 difference. The boys tournament reiterated this component multiple times last fall. A full list of our final MPR scores can be found at our website: www.mosoccercoach.com.

Everyone loves an upset (unless, of course, your team is the one being upset) and we’ve had three notable ones so far. The biggest in MPR discrepancy and by seeding was in last night’s Class 4, District 6 match between #2 Grain Valley (19th in Class 4) and #7 Blue Springs (57th in Class 4). Blue Springs pulled the 3-2 upset win on Blue Springs South turf and currently owns the biggest upset by point differential (1.45) of any of the 15 so far.

The other two upsets weren’t as big in point discrepancy, but certainly were significant as Class 3 #28 Webster Groves started the tournament with a 1-0 2OT decision over #9 John Burroughs Saturday in the Class 3, District 3 4-5 game. Several interesting points to take from this one with the biggest being Burroughs getting eliminated in game one at Class 3 after winning the Class 1 title last season. In an interesting twist, the Bombers boys squad were the upset kings of Class 4 in the fall as they reached the Final Four by virtue of several shockers over Class 4 powerhouses.

Webster Groves, on the other hand, had fallen on hard times after winning the 2017 state title with a 24-1 record. Since then, the Statesmen had gone over .500 just once and posted a 31-41-1 mark, including 5-11 this year, but WG plays in one of the toughest areas in STL and had lost seven one goal games this year - three in OT scenarios.

The final upset outside the .50 range actually came in Class 1, District 2 where STEAM Academy (#17) eliminated Cardinal Ritter (#13) 1-0. Ritter had a +.83 in points. STEAM will look to continue its run against top-seeded Metro (#11), but will again have to pull an upset as the two are .92 apart.

One other upset to note that was within the parameters of an “upset alert” but certainly will have ramifications going forward was Westminster’s Christian (Class 2 #13) ousting of overall MPR #1 Clayton 1-0 Monday night. MICDS is the #1 seed in that district and #7 in MPR.

Quick Class Notes:

Class 1 - Based on the “.50” theory, eight of the 22 teams would be in contention to win the state title. Villa Duchesne is #1 with a 3.20 mark and Mid-Buchanan is at 8 with a 2.72. So far, only #5 Lutheran St. Charles has been eliminated as they fell 2-0 to #3 Whitfield Monday in the state’s toughest Class1 district. Whitfield and Villa play in that district’s final. #4 Greenwood looks to have the clearest path to the final four based on the potential Laquey matchup in the quarters. Greenwood knocked off the Hornets 4-1 earlier. In District 8 Bishop LeBlond (6) and Mid-Buchanan (8) will likely meet up in the final. LeBlond won the first match 3-2.

Class 2 - 16 Teams are separated from the top and within .50 of each other in Class 2. As mentioned, #1 Clayton is out, leaving #2 Perryville, #3 Orchard Farm, #4 Harrisonville, #5 Father Tolton and #6 St. Pius (KC) as the front runners. Perryville is the #2 seed behind #8 Fredericktown (the two tied earlier 0-0) in District 1, Orchard Farm will likely have a finals match with #9 St. Charles, Tolton and #11 Southern Boone should square off in a District 6 final, while Pius and Harrisonville look to have easier routes.

Class 3 - All eyes are on a potential quarterfinal between #1 (and defending champ) Ft. Zumwalt South and #2 Parkway West - the two teams who have traded the #1 spot most of the year in the class, but each has some tricky obstacles to overcome first. #7 Duchesne is only a few years removed from a dominant run in the small schools with 5 titles and a third place, but maybe more importantly only has two losses this year - both to Class 4 power St. Dominic. Parkway West has upstart Webster Groves first in a semi and then will have to deal with the winner of #5 Ladue and #12 Visitation in the finals. The state’s #3 squad Glendale will also have a regional rival to tussle with in the finals as perennial state qualifier Springfield Catholic awaits. The Irish are ranked 13th and have three losses - just as Glendale does. #4 Smithville and #6 Platte County meet at Van Horn in the District 8 final with identical 22-3 records. Smithville won the first match 1-0 and only .08 separate the two on the year. Capital City (#10) and Smith-Cotton (#11) are the favorites to get to the District 7 final, but Pembroke Hill (19) and St. Michael’s (24) could make things interesting in the semis. Union (#8) has been a final four regular over the years but will have a strong test with last year's Class 2 winner Ursuline (16) and Rockwood Summit (20) and Pacific (21) in that district.

Class 4 - Despite finishing the season undefeated, Liberty North fell from the top MPR spot to Cor Jesu in the last rankings. Cor Jesu (#1) is only a 3 seed in a demanding district that includes top seed Nerinx Hall (#3), 2nd seed Lafayette (#4) and arguably the state’s most heralded girls program over the years, St. Joseph’s Academy (#6). SJA knocked out #7 Eureka 3-1 in the 4/5 game earlier. District 2 should be an epic battle, with the winner/survivor getting either Oakville (22) or Jackson (24) in a quarter. As mentioned, Liberty North (2) is 19-0 and will face city rival Liberty (29) in the District 8 final. #5 Lee’s Summit West has a tough challenge in escaping District 7 as Lee’s Summit (9) and St. Teresa’s (15) await after another local game against Lee’s Summit North (30). Two-time defending champ St. Dominic (8) and the winner of Francis Howell (10) and Liberty (Wentzville) (11) appear to be on a collision course in District 4.