2024 Boys Postseason #1
by Admin on 11/01/24
The final regular season MPR has been released - this includes all teams for all classes.
NOTE: The team's "Schedule Strength" is used by a modified classification system based on this year's results and not the MSHSAA classification system used. More on that later.
Out of the last four years on the boys side, the MPR has predicted the
eventual champion as #1 in the final regular season poll 10 out of 16
times. The rest were top 10 (2 #2's, #5, #7, & #9) - with only one
outlier at #13... Class 4 Jackson in 2020. 14 of the 16 Final Regular Season #1's were either champions or knocked out by the eventual champion.
How to approach reading the MSPR as a coach or fan:
Based on multiple years of MSPR data from both the boys' and girls' sides, we can draw some conclusions. It's important to note that the team with the higher ranking or point total doesn't always secure a victory. After all, this is a game played by teenagers, and each match is unique with varying matchups against opponents (i.e. injuries, home field advantage, rivalry match, travel, too many games in a short span of time, etc). However, a point differential of 0.4 appears to be the threshold where 'upsets' occur more frequently. Roughly eighty percent of all upsets, as per the PR, happen when teams are within 0.4 points of each other. This could be considered a minor upset. The remaining twenty percent is usually not far from that 0.4 threshold. There are still occasional instances when a 'major' upset happens, and the point spread is considerably different. In any case, it's crucial for every team to approach their opponents with respect, but keep an eye out for those teams within 0.4 points. It should make for a good competitive game.
Side note: This data is sourced from the postseason, when teams have played a substantial number of games and the highest amount of data is accessible for use.
Based on multiple years of MSPR data from both the boys' and girls' sides, we can draw some conclusions. It's important to note that the team with the higher ranking or point total doesn't always secure a victory. After all, this is a game played by teenagers, and each match is unique with varying matchups against opponents (i.e. injuries, home field advantage, rivalry match, travel, too many games in a short span of time, etc). However, a point differential of 0.4 appears to be the threshold where 'upsets' occur more frequently. Roughly eighty percent of all upsets, as per the PR, happen when teams are within 0.4 points of each other. This could be considered a minor upset. The remaining twenty percent is usually not far from that 0.4 threshold. There are still occasional instances when a 'major' upset happens, and the point spread is considerably different. In any case, it's crucial for every team to approach their opponents with respect, but keep an eye out for those teams within 0.4 points. It should make for a good competitive game.
Side note: This data is sourced from the postseason, when teams have played a substantial number of games and the highest amount of data is accessible for use.
Comments (0)
